Bitcoin: Exchange Rate Parity, Risk Premium, and Arbitrage Stickiness
Huijian Dong *
College of Business, Pacific University, 2043 College Way, Forest Grove, OR, USA
Weiguo Dong
Department of Mathematics, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Bitcoin has two major roles: as currency and as financial asset. This paper attempts to address these roles: whether Bitcoin is a real currency, and what its financial features are. Using daily data of the exchange rates quoted from the world major Bitcoin dealer since the inception of Bitcoin and the spot market exchange rates, we calculate the triangle arbitrage asset price to decompose the features of this currency. The results suggest significant liquidity discount of Bitcoin and risk premium as a financial asset in terms of British Pound Sterling (2.46%) and Chinese Yuan (0.3%). There is idiosyncratic risk component associated with Bitcoin implied by the Granger causality tests. Bitcoin, as investment objectives instead of currency unit, is associated with excess risk and low returns. Such poor performance discourages investors to spend Bitcoin as currency and to pursue the arbitrage profit. Investors store and hold Bitcoin as fixed asset. In addition, both arbitrage stickiness and low Treynor ratio are persistent over time.
Keywords: Bitcoin, exchange rate, risk premium, arbitrage, currency