Modelling Transport Energy Demand in Ghana: The Policy Implication on Ghanaian Economy
Jonathan Annan
Department of Information Systems and Decision Sciences, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Ghana
Yarhands Dissou Arthur *
Department of Mechanical Technology Education, College of Technology Education, University of Education, Winneba, Kumasi Campus, P.O Box 1277, Ghana
Emmanuel Quanah
Department of Information Systems and Decision Sciences, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Ghana
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Aim: The study aims at modeling automotive energy demand in Ghana as well as predicting the long term energy demand and its implication on the Ghanaian economy.
Research Design: The research design deployed in order to achieve the aim was explanatory.
Research Duration: The research form part of bigger research work which got started in 2012 and ended 2015
Research Methodology: The study used secondary data of fuel demand collected from the ministry of energy, through Ghana statistical service. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistical methods were deployed. Various descriptive charts were used in the preliminary stages of the modeling and further modeling techniques such as quadratic, linear, logarithmic, cubic and exponential models were the modeling techniques used. The mean absolute deviation was also adopted.
Research Findings: The result of the study reveals that the cubic model best predict the demand for both gasoline but the PMS best predicted by quadratic model in Ghana with p-value < 0.05. The plot of the forecast value further revealed exponential future demand for automotive energy in Ghana.
Conclusion: The cubic model best fit the automotive energy demand in Ghana with exponential future automotive energy demand. The nation should put policies in place to ensure resilient public transportation system which will translate into a reduction in private car demand for fuel.
Implication on Ghanaian Economy: The exponential demand for automotive energy will mean that the nation will need more funds in order to import such energy this will further put much pressure on the cedi since demand for the fuel will demand foreign currency for its importation.
Keywords: Energy demand, transport energy, Ghanaian economy, modeling