An Empırıcal Investigation of the Contributıon of Agriculture, Petroleum and Development of Human Capital to the Economıc Growth in Nıgeria, 1970-2012
Charles Uche Ugwuanyi *
Department of Economics, Ebonyi State University, Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria and Department of Economics, Kogi State University, Anyigba, Kogi State, Nigeria
Matthew Abula
Department of Economics, Kogi State University, Anyigba, Kogi State, Nigeria
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
An empirical investigation of the contribution of agriculture, petroleum, human capital to the economic growth in Nigeria were carried out in this paper by employing cointegration test, Granger causality test and ordinary least square techniques, using the data of annual time series for the period 1970-2012. The findings reveal the existence of 3 cointegrating vectors which show a long-run relationship among the variables in the series used. The Granger causality test shows that there is a bi-directional causality among the variables. The OLS results show that agriculture and petroleum contribute to output growth positively and significantly, while human capital contributes to output growth negatively but insignicantly. Thus, if a policy aims at sustaining a high rate of economic growth in Nigeria, the priority should be given to the development of human capital in the budgetary and development policies. An effective coordination of these variables and a good policy mix to avoid lopsidedness will ensure a high and sustainable economic growth since there is a bi-directional causality between these variables.
Keywords: Investigation, sustainable growth, cointegration, causality, policy-mix