Inflationary Effect on Nigeria Economic Growth: The ARDL Bound Test Approach
B. U. K. Farouk
Department of Management Studies, Nigeria Defence Academy, Kaduna, Nigeria.
I. J. David *
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University Wukari, Nigeria.
N. S. Agog
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Kaduna State University, Kaduna, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The expectation of any country is to experience a high output but in the presence of increasing inflation such expectation becomes blurring because high inflation is a sign of a low working economic system. In this research the impact of inflation rate (InfR) on Nigeria economic growth (EcoG) is studied for the period of 1986 to 2018 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test approach to determine the co-integration existence between InfR and EcoG and determine the long run effect through the approach of Error Correction Model (ECM). The results obtained showed that an ARDL (2, 2) model was the best fitted model for the sampled data based on the smallest Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) value obtained. Also, it was found that InfR significantly impacted on Nigeria EcoG negatively on the long and short run dynamics with a stable estimation as portrayed by the CUSUM square chart.
Keywords: ARDL, inflation, economic growth, co-integration, error correction model, AIC